Business

The Pragmatic Capitalist: How will the market perform in 2010? "Using a purely historical perspective to preview 2010 one might conclude that the year is very likely to get off to a strong start as the first four months of the year have been positive 72% of the time going back to 1974."

Jason Goepfert : Years Ending In "0"... A Bad Omen for the Market?

Chicago purchasing managers index exceeds expectations and reaches 16-month high

Chart - ATA Trucking Tonnage Index (2005 - Present). The index increased 2.7 percent in November to reach its highest level in a year.

Calculated Risk: House Prices and the Unemployment Rate. "Although there are periods when there is no relationship between the unemployment rate and house prices, this graph suggests that house prices will not bottom (in real terms) until the unemployment rate peaks (or later, especially since the current bubble dwarfs those previous housing bubbles). This also suggests that real house prices are probably 10% or more too high on a national basis."
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Interesting

Graph: the NYC murder rate has been declining since 1990 and it will make another new low this year.

John Harvey Kellogg, the inventor of corn flakes, tried to cure children of the "solitary vice" of masturbation by "bandaging or tying their hands, covering their genitals with patented cages, sewing the foreskin shut and electrical shock." In females, the application of pure carbolic acid to the clitoris was found to be "an excellent means of allaying the abnormal excitement."

Marijuana May Soon Be Legal In Four U.S. States (Massachusetts, California, New Hampshire, and Washington).

Altria Group, the parent company of Philip Morris USA, has filed an arbitration proceeding to get the domain names AltriaMarijuana.com and AltriaCannabis.com.

Earth's North Magnetic Pole is Moving East Due to Core Flux
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Business

Richard W. Rahn: US Government growth clouds stock market prospects. "For the past 100 years, there has been an inverse relationship between changes in the size of government and the growth or decline in the stock market."

Calculated Risk: Are Homes now "Cheap"? Not really - they just aren't outrageously expensive anymore.

Robert Shiller: The shadow inventory and coming resets will hinder housing prices for years to come.

The Hershey trust is mulling a solo offer for Cadbury (HSY). This merger would require taking on new debt of some $10B, and that might jeopardize HSY's credit rating, but the corporate cultures fit together well and the new entity would give HSY an unbeatable world chocolate franchise.

AT&T - The most hated company in iPhone land (T). The dropped calls and dicey service would have happened on any network that carried Apple's iPhone because of the incredible amount of data downloaded by iPhone users. Over the past three years, AT&T's data traffic increased 5,000% because of the iPhone! Any company is worth a look when it receives the moniker "most hated". The 3-year weekly chart shows that T is in a solid uptrend. The stock yields 5.9% on a secure dividend that was just increased for the umpteenth consecutive year, at a time when 10-year Treasury notes yield only 3.81%.
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Interesting

52% of U.S. voters worry that the federal government will do too much – rather than not enough – when it comes to the nation’s economic problems.

Living in different worlds? Government workers say the economy is getting better; workers in the private sector say it is not.

Life imitates art

Synergistic Quote Machine. "Refresh this page to get another random quote and porn pic."

Teens discover new species of cockroach while collecting samples in a New York City supermarket.
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Business

Eric Sprott, whose hedge fund returned 496% over the past nine years, says bullish investors are delusional. "We're in a bear market that will last 15 or 20 years, and we've had nine of them." Sprott predicts the S&P will collapse below its March low.

Stocks going higher? Successful institutional investor El-Erian says don't bet on it. "We're on a sugar high. It feels good for a while but is unsustainable."

Seth Godin: "Amazon and the Kindle have killed the bookstore. Why? Because people who buy 100 or 300 books a year are gone forever. The typical American buys just one book a year for pleasure. Those people are meaningless to a bookstore. It's the heavy users that matter, and now officially, as 2009 ends, they have abandoned the bookstore. It's over."

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 0% month-over-month vs. consensus of +0.3%; -7.3% year-over-year vs. -7.7% expected. So this is the net effect of the massive government effort to support home prices? The next question is, what will happen to home prices as these programs end over the next 6 months?

Barry Ritholtz: Tanker Glut! "The trade in oil that would surprise most people isn’t a rise to $100 from $75, its a drop to $50 . . ."
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Interesting

Where Americans Aren't Moving: California, New York, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio

MALE MODEL WANTED FOR PRIVATE FOTO-SHOOT - w4m - 41 (Rotterdam)

Now possible: Grow New Teeth to Replace Lost Teeth

17 Interesting Tricks of the Body

Cute pic of girl and dolphin
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Business

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index will be reported at 9:00. In November the index rose 0.3%, its fifth straight monthly rise. Can the C/S make it six in a row? The consensus thinks so. Recent data have been weak, but the number reported is actually a 3-month moving average so it turns slowly.

Commercial real estate: In 2007, developers excavated a deep hole in downtown Seattle for a 23-story luxury hotel and condo tower. They filled the hole in 2009. That sums up the kind of year it has been in the Seattle area. Developers think 2010 won't be any better.

49% of small business owners think the economy is getting worse, a slight improvement from November; but still, 51% of them experienced cash flow problems in the last 90 days.

Daryl Guppy on Intermarket Analysis: "China leads, the DOW follows the behaviour and other markets tag along further behind. Watching China gives investors a glimpse of the potential future. It is absolutely essential to developing any long term portfolio investment or planning." We only have 3 years of data in this chart comparing the Shanghai and Dow indexes, but here are a couple of interesting factoids: The Shanghai did call the bear market low with a positive divergence, and right now I see a negative divergence, suggesting the Dow may soon top out and begin to move sideways with a downward bias.

The DIV-Net: Stock Analysis: Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC). "a regional holding company for property and casualty insurance companies that operates in 32 states, primarily in the eastern half of the U.S. . . . The stock is trading at a 7.5% discount to its calculated fair value of $34.88. . . . The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1986 and has increased its dividend payments for 22 consecutive years. . . . HGIC earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks HGIC as a 4 Star-Buy."
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Annoying

The Pentagon is now spending more for war than all 50 States combined are spending to run the country.

Members of Congress like to invest in defense stocks in a big way.

Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano: "The System Worked" in preventing the terrorist attack. Let's see if we're on the same planet here, Janet: Do you mean the system which worked was the one that let a known terrorist on a plane, failed to detect explosives, and had no air marshal on board?

John Holdren, Obama's Science Czar, says forcible abortions and mass sterilization are needed to save the planet.

YouTube: Senator Max Baucus (D-Montana), Chairman of Senate Finance Committee, Drunk on Senate Floor.
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Business

John Hussman: "Stocks remain overvalued, overbought, overbullish and face rising yield pressures - a combination that has typically been associated with increased risk of abrupt market losses."

Jeff Saut: "we're once again turning cautious because the Treasury bond market is breaking down (read: higher interest rates) and the US dollar is rallying. . . . Therefore, we think it prudent to bank some trading profits and hedge some investment positions as we approach the New Year."

Chart: US Office Vacancy Rate (1991 - Present). The vacancy rate is accelerating upward but has not yet passed its 2003 peak.

Bloomberg - Reinstatement of Glass-Stegall Act is gaining momentum in Congress, could force breakup of big banks.

Reshma Kapadia - Companies With Internal Growth Deliver (SYY, HNZ)
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Business

The most important economic report during this holiday-shortened week will be the Case-Shiller house price index for October which will be released on Tuesday at 9:00.

With record low occupancy rates, it is not surprising that some hotels are closing down.

The Unofficial Problem Bank List now contains 545 names.

The U.S. remains the least risky of the major global equity markets, at least in terms of volatility.

In 2009 the most profitable companies in the S&P 500 saw the smallest gains in their stock prices - JNJ, PG, HSY, WMT, et. al. - while the dogs had their day. Will this pattern reverse next year?
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Funny

Google Maps: Tuscany Springs Green NW Calgary, AB

A Muscovy drake everts his penis in about a third of a second, at speeds of 1.6 meters per second.

Jesus image appears on banana peel

A British aquarium has lowered the water level in their tanks to prevent gas bubbles produced by farting turtles from triggering overflow alarms.

Natural remedies for the common cold?
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Interesting

Barrons: Burlington Northern's Tepid Outlook Is a Warning. "At a time when major market indexes are at or near 2009 highs and valuations on many industrial stocks are signaling a significant recovery, the cautious view of Burlington's management is worth heeding. It could mean 2010 will be tougher for the markets and the economy than Wall Street expects."

France proposes ban on Islamic veils.

Machine Translates Thoughts into Speech in Real Time

How to Toilet-Train Your Cat

Photos: Kabul, Afghanistan -1969 vs. 2009
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The future of long-term interest rates

Last week the 10-year Treasury note fell completely out of bed, triggering an MACD sell signal on the weekly chart and providing a bearish technical forecast for 2010.

If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale.

Washington Post: Freddie sees mortgage rates hitting 6% in 2010.

Charles Hugh Smith: Why interest rates will rise in 2010 and continue rising for a generation.

zero hedge: Brace For Impact: In 2010, Demand For US Fixed Income Has To Increase Elevenfold... Or Else.
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Annoying

Facebook was cited in one out of every five divorce petitions this year.

Banks Get into the Unemployment Biz, and Quickly Start the Rip-offs.

Ohio mom catches her 6 year old daughter shoplifting, calls the cops on her, then asks about collecting the $30 reward for turning in shoplifters.

Arrow Trucking lays off drivers by stranding them hundreds of miles from home with canceled gas cards.

Extending Federal Benefits to Same-Sex Couples Will Cost Taxpayers $898M, CBO Says.
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Interesting

Michael Barone, Rasmussen Reports: It been more than 150 years since such unpopular legislation as the health care bill was passed through Congress on a partisan basis. And last time, in 1854, the political ramifications were so significant that it led to the creation of a new political party, the Republican Party.

The Obameter: Tracking Barack Obama's Campaign Promises

Top Mexican anti-drug official advises the US to legalize marijuana

15 Hot Weed Head Girls

Inventor spends Christmas with his perfect woman - a £30,000 custom-made fembot
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Funny

Premature Ejaculators Anonymous

Graffiti from Pompeii: “Restituta, take off your tunic, please, and show us your hairy privates”.

Snowman funeral

Fun with Santa

Dinosaur skeletons copulate to porn
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Interesting

Is this how you say "Merry Christmas" in Greek?

Microsoft Security Essentials Ranks as Best-Performing Free Antivirus

Israeli Study Finds Marijuana May Help Alleviate PTSD Synptoms

California DMV ordered to pay $69,400 in legal fees for unjustly revoking the drivers' licenses of medical marijuana patients

National Irish Bank is moving to a Scandinavian model of "cashless banking" with an increased reliance on ATMs and debit cards
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Now that Santa is gone, let's consider that the economic recovery may be more Ho-Hum than Ho-Ho-Ho.

Although the S&P 500 reached a 15-month high last week amid some signs the US economy may be improving, and the ECRI remains very optimistic about the economic recovery (even though their weekly leading indicator declined slightly), Goldman Sachs Research warns the recovery may be more Ho-Hum than Ho-Ho-Ho. This may be worth paying close attention to, since GS Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is the most accurate economic forecaster, according to Bloomberg.

Randall W. Forsyth - Barrons.com: 2010 Unlikely to Make Treasury Holders Smile. "But Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs -- and a skeptic on 2010 economic growth -- foresees no change in the fed-funds rate, and a gentle slide in the 10-year yield as GDP gains slow, from the current quarter's likely 4% pace to about half that, until the fourth quarter of 2010."

Real Time Economics - WSJ: Why NY Fed Economists Expect the Home Ownership Rate To Keep Falling. An extended decline of home ownership would have serious long-term implications for home sales, prices, and construction employment.

Calculated Risk: Chart - US Home Ownership Rate (1965 - Present). This data series shows fairly smooth trending behavior. After peaking above 69% in 2004, the trend of home ownership turned down. Looks like it could take another 4-5 years for home ownership to return to the levels of 63-65% which prevailed from the 1960s to the 1990s.

Economics Junkie: Fun Facts About US Government Spending. "This train wreck is headed for a cliff and the public is cheering on its acceleration."
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Funny

Amazon.com: Customer review of book, "How to Live with a Huge Penis"

Woman Domesticated - The Onion

Google Maps: 574 H St NE, Washington, DC

New Geico Insurance Commercial: What's This?

Are You Gay? Are You A Thug? Then You'll Love Gay Thug Online Dating.
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Coming in 2010 - Bailouts for States.

Minyanville: Coming in 2010 - Bailouts for States.

California will lead the parade, seeking an $8B bailout in the near future.

Rolfe Winkler: The FDIC now guarantees about $6 trillion in deposits with no reserves with which to pay any losses. With 500+ more banks teetering on the brink, things could get interesting next year.

Bespoke Investment Group: Oil Inventories are Working Their Way Back to Average Levels. While inventories were running more than 20 million barrels above normal at the start of the quarter, current levels are now less than 6 million barrels above average.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: The inventory came in at -166BCF vs. -173BCF consensus. The market did not like that; futures -1.8% to $5.70. Despite the strong seasonal drawdown there is still ~plenty~ of gas in storage - see chart.
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Interesting

30 amazing Photoshopped images

A Robot Buddy for Your Bicycle-Built-For-Two

Gallup: The Decade in Review - Four Key Trends

"GOOOH stands for 'Get Out of Our House' and is pronounced like the word 'go'. It is a NON-PARTISAN plan to evict the 435 career politicians in the U.S. House of Representatives and replace them with everyday Americans just like you."

The Pragmatic Capitalist: Chart of US Govt. transfer payments to Individuals, by amount and as a percent of income (1959 - Present). This shows where our country has gone wrong over the decades: if you give away all your money, pretty soon it is gone.
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S&P 500 Flirts With 1121 as Santa Teeters Atop the Chimney

Tiernan Ray: S&P 500 Flirts With Elusive 1,121. "Why is 1,121 important? Because technicians say so! 1,121 is a retracement of the 50% dip from the high of October, 2007, to the March, 2008 high. Some observers argue if the S&P goes above 1,121 and then falls below 1,114, look out below."

The S&P managed to close higher once again yesterday, despite some pretty bad news regarding new home sales, as the Santa Claus rally continued. Will it be able to do it again after studying today's offerings? These are almost certain to contain at least a little more bad news: the 7:00 Senate vote on healthcare reform, the 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods reports, and at 10:30 the Natural Gas Inventory. The stock markets will close early at 1:00 and they will not re-open until Monday.

The Pragmatic Capitalist's Chart of the Day: Intra-Day Action is Where It Is At. "Historically, the majority of (stock) market moves have come when the market is not actually open. Futures and other market moving news tend to sway the markets before actual trading begins in NY at 9:30AM. But this rally has been entirely different. The majority of this move has actually occurred during the trading day after most major news has already been digested"

Marty Chenard: Bernanke is vowing to keep interest rates low ... but, can he? "We say this because the market is not satisfied with receiving low yields when risk levels are perceived to be rising. That clearly showed up on the 10 year yields (on Monday, Dec. 21) when the yield jumped up to 36.82 (3.682%). It wasn't just any up move, it was an up move that passed through the resistance of our "flag pattern". This "upside breakout" has an upside projection for this pattern at around 45 (4.50%), so there is still a way to go. I'm sure Bernanke will be trying to fight it all the way, because this now presents a major problem to his current strategy."

Joanna Slater: Treasurys Sales May Come With a Tail. Next week, the Treasury will sell a combined $118 billion in two-, five-, and seven-year notes. "That’s as big as any week ever, matching the record set last month – and yet another reminder of how much the government needs to borrow to fund its massive deficits. How will investors react to such a whopper sale at the slowest time of the year?"
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Annoying

Two Brooklyn EMT's leave pregnant woman to die because they were off-duty.

Photos: Baby elephants tied up and beaten to become circus stars.

Transvestites, Mao And Obama Ornaments Decorate White House Christmas Tree.

Darth Vader Opens The New York Stock Exchange.

Drunk driving activist pleads guilty to third offense of drunk driving.
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Will the bull market continue into 2010? Everyone seems to think so.

Goldman Sachs 2010 Investment Outlook (via Pragmatic Capitalist): The Bull Will Continue. “Continued profit margin resiliency from prior aggressive cost reductions should drive strong returns in early 2010 and push the S&P 500 towards 1,300.” They focus on three key themes:
* Dispersion – higher growth and higher sustainable returns companies.
* BRICs exposure.
* High and growing dividend growth companies.

James Altucher: Ten Predictions for 2010.
1.) The S&P 500 will touch 1300 at some point during the year.
2.) Unemployment goes down to 8%.
3.) GDP hits an annualized 6% by Q2 as inventories get restocked.
4.) Dendreon (DNDN) is acquired.
5.) AOL gets bought by Microsoft.
6.) B will the best letter in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China.
7.) Health care will greatly outperform the S&P in 2010.
8.) Banks start lending money again.
9.) Either Apple or Amazon will develop the killer tablet computing product.
10.) The world will not end.

Paul Kedrosky: Best and Worst Industries of the Past Decade.

CXOAG Investing Notes – Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Performance. "simple sector ETF momentum strategies have generally outperformed the broad stock market over the past decade for reasonably low trading frictions." The "6-1-SMA10" momentum strategy looks particularly promising.

Glenn Curtis: Why ConAgra Is Worth a Taste (CAG)
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Interesting

A giant volcano is about to erupt in the Philippines.

Anarchism FAQs.

minimalist seeks girl - 31 (manhattan/brooklyn)

Pakistan court orders brothers' noses, ears cut off.

Sweden's bizarre tradition of watching Donald Duck (Kalle Anka) cartoons on Christmas Eve.
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Wednesday's economic reports looking weak.

Personal Income and Outlays came in pretty soft: Income +0.4% vs. +0.5% expected, Spending +0.5% vs. +0.6% expected, PCE core price index 0% vs. +0.1% expected.

Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment came in at 72.5, up from 67.4 in November but lower than the expected 73.5.

New Home Sales came in at a 7 month low, -11.3% to 355K vs. 425K expected. There were 7.9 months' supply on hand were vs. 6.7 prior. Since new home sales are based on contracts signed, these numbers are what the market looks like minus the stimulus credit.

Rasmussen: Only 9% of Americans rate the economy as good or excellent while 55% say it’s in poor shape.

Chart of the Day: Since 1950, the first nine months of the average mid-term election year in the stock market has tended to be flat/choppy.

Jack Hough: 3 Stocks Generating 8% Free Cash Flow (PFE, CAT, SLE)
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Interesting

Monocles are back in fashion

Anton Pieck - Kerstfeest (Christmas)

Goose photographed flying upside down

Relative prices of various liquids from printer ink to crude oil

100 miles per gallon and 100 horsepower from a clean-burning TWO-stroke engine
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Financial Sector Breaks Downtrend

Bespoke Investment Group: Financial Sector Breaks Downtrend. "The S&P 500 made a new bull market closing high today, but the action in the Financial sector was probably even more important. The S&P 500 Financial sector has been underperforming the overall market lately, and it is a main reason why the major indices haven't been able to break out of their trading ranges. Today, however, the Financial sector broke above its short-term downtrend line, which is a very positive technical formation. If the Financials start moving higher again, the market should have no trouble making another leg higher."

Several important economic reports to be released this morning will test the S&P's ability to continue the Santa Claus rally: 8:30, Personal Income and Outlays; 9:55, Consumer Sentiment; 10:00, New Home Sales; 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report.

Bloomberg: Property and casualty insurance sales took their biggest hit since 1986, falling 5% in the third quarter. Both demand and prices declined. This was the 10th straight quarterly decline for written premiums.

The BLS reports there were 1,797 mass layoff events in November, resulting in 165K job losses. That's 330 fewer layoff events than October, but the year-to-date total of 27,669 mass layoff events marked a high point since measurement began in 1995.

Bloomberg: A survey of money managers shows that 92% expect mergers and acquisitions to increase next year. About 21% of those surveyed expected energy companies to lead in M&A, while 17% chose financial firms.
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LOL Pairs Trade - Long 34300 MJNA @ .17, Short 10 GOOG @ 600.

This afternoon may be a good time to score some Medical Marijuana (MJNA).

MarketWatch: Google gains highlight tech sector advance. Today GOOG crossed the $600 mark for the first time in nearly two years. This is a great compnay but the stock is looking quite frothy to me. GOOG has more than doubled since the 08 lows, but trading volume has been in a declining trend all year, and now RSI has been above 70 on the weekly chart since early October.

Calculated Risk on the 7.4% spike in existing home sales reported this morning: "What matters for the economy are (not existing home sales, but) new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. And there has been little improvement in these key indicators - and there will not be any until the huge overhang of excess inventory is reduced. . . . House prices are now falling again - and this will show up in the Case-Shiller index soon. This is probably the end of the "good" housing news for a while."

Chart - Philly Fed: State Coincident Index, Number of States Showing Increasing Activity (1979 - Present). This year's move from zilch to 32 states which reported increasing activity looks quite bullish, until you notice that this indicator shot up to 47 in late 1980 right before the second dip of the double-dip recession.

Recently reported retail sales sound relatively strong compared to 2009, but they look much less impressive when you view the big picture: Retail Sales (1992 - Present)
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The cavalry in the global warming battle: Natural Gas

Although Obama lumps gas with oil and coal as energy sources the nation must move away from, natural gas has to be the cavalry in the global warming battle.

But as Bespoke Investment Group points out, the natural gas ETF, UNG, is definitely not the right way to play this! It is best to stick with futures or the natural gas stocks. "the discrepancy between the price of natural gas and the ETF that is meant to track its price provides a great reminder of why many of these more exotic vehicles should be avoided."

Andrew Bary: Big Opportunity in Four Big Banks. "JPMorgan (JPM) may have the clearest path to higher profits, the strongest management and one of the industry's best business mixes. It has suffered far less equity dilution than any of the other major banks, and it has improved its franchise with the fire-sale purchases of Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns in the past year. JPMorgan also could be one of the first major banks to boost its dividend in 2010."

Jack Hough: 3 Stocks Soaring on Health-Care Bill (AET, CI, WLP)

Robyn Meredith: China is obsessing about food security, not just energy security. To track China's appetite for commodities, you should watch the price of rice.
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Funny

Sexual bases through the decades

Black transgender high-school cheerleader kicked off of team for bad behavior, but principal reinstates her for being black and transgendered.

Sen. Whitehouse: Don’t Want Obamacare? You’re A Racist “Birther”, an “Aryan”, and a “Militia Member”.

to the couple(s) getting frisky in front of the window at the Sterling - m4w

Affadavit: Request to be excused from jury duty.
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A Santa Claus rally may be imminent, but what about 2010?

Kevin's Market Blog: 60 min. chart of SPY (Nov. 2 - Dec. 21). "If you look closely at the above 60 min chart of the S&P you will notice a series of higher lows. Usually higher lows are followed by higher highs which means expect the S&P to break through the top of its range."

Deutsche Bank's 2010 investment outlook: Four possible scenarios. (via Pragmatic Capitalist)
1. Super bullish - Stimulus continues to pour into the system. Probability: 15%, Total equity returns: 34%.
2. Moderately bullish - Gradual easing of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Probability: 50%, Total equity returns: 20%
3. Bearish - bond yields spike sharply higher. Probability: 25%, Total equity returns: -11%
4. Super bearish - deflation and double-dip recession. Probability: 10%, Total equity returns: -26%

Randall Forsyth: Spiking yields make for a Bad Day in Bond Land. The popular long-term Treasury ETF, TLT has completed a head and shoulders top that implies it will soon revisit the June 09 lows.

Bloomberg: A Barclays survey shows the most "underpriced" risk is that of a double-dip recession.

Calculated Risk: The Fed's favorite indicator shows that home prices are now falling again. It might take a month or two for this to show up in the Case-Shiller index because it is an average over three months.
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Funny

"My vegeena is the clean"

“Screw Everyone But Me” to replace “In God We Trust” on dollar bill.

Towards a grand unification of cutlery.

Church of England minister advises congregation to shoplift.

Lesson 3 - Feelings
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Surprises for 2010?

Doug Kass's 20 Surprises for 2010. Kass has made a lot of good calls in recent years. This list contains several ideas that seem entirely plausible to me, and other possibilities (perhaps more remote), which are certainly thought-provoking.

Research Reloaded: A strong U.S. dollar trend has been definitively established. Uh-oh - all of a sudden the long side is starting to look overcrowded.

"If we agree that excessive credit and excessive leverage led to the crisis, then what the Federal Reserve is doing is giving a wrong medicine to the patient—they are giving the drug addicts more drug instead of sending them to rehabilitation" - Mark Faber

Peter Roff: Data Shows that Obama's Stimulus Package Was a Waste of Money. "All told, the nation has lost 2.6 million jobs since the "shovel ready" stimulus dollars started to flow, rather than create the promised 3.5 million, putting the Obama administration 6.1 million jobs in the hole."

Reuters: Europe's wind power companies snap up U.S. stimulus cash.
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Solving the 2010 Stock Market Puzzle

Ron Coby: Solving the 2010 Stock Market Puzzle. "This cloudy picture will be very clear when it’s completed by a solid break either below (S&P) 1080 or above 1120." So far this morning we have risen from 1105 to 1117. We'll see what the Solar New Year has in mind starting in two hours, at 1747 GMT.

Bloomberg: The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 3.6% Monday as investors speculated that an accelerating economic recovery will fuel inflation and dampen demand for government debt as the U.S. borrows record amounts. “Many economists are looking for 10-year yields to get above 4 percent next year due to GDP growth and concerns about supply” - Thomas L. di Galoma.

Bloomberg: Oil’s biggest annual rally since 1999 is poised to continue with gains of 20% next year, the most accurate crude forecasters say.

The DIV-Net: Stock Analysis: Emerson Electric Co. (EMR). "Emerson Electric Co. primarily makes backup power equipment for telecom and Internet providers and users, climate control components, and electric motors. . . . The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1947 and has increased its dividend payments for 52 consecutive years. . . . EMR has a strong competitive position within its major product categories and a reputation for providing consistent returns to investors. EMR's advantages include globally branded platforms, new products in the pipeline, a strong balance sheet and free cash flow. The stock is currently trading above my buy price of $36.97, but given its strong dividend fundamentals, I will give it consideration as my asset allocation allows." EMR would have to sell off to $33.50 to get Mr. Monopoly interested. In view of the stock's high beta of 1.17, this seems likely in the event of a stock market correction in the 20% range.

Calculated Risk: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is still negative. According to the Chicago Fed, it is still too early to say the recession is over.

Today’s Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll shows the highest level of Strong Disapproval yet recorded for Obama. This comes as the Senate is preparing to pass health care reform legislation initiated by the President and opposed by most voters.
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Interesting

Firefox 3.5 is now the most popular web browser worldwide.

In the Bahamas the age of consent is 18 for homosexuals and 16 for heterosexuals.

Dutch cannabis lollipops.

Last Suppers by James Reynolds. A series of photographs documenting Death Row prisoners' last meal requests.

The official outfit of members of the Supreme Court of Canada is quite similar to that of Santa Claus!
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Bull market in skepticism?

Futures are up slightly at 0930 UTC as traders anticipate what is supposed to be a good week for the stock market, but a skeptic might ask, "After the boost to equities at Friday's close from quadruple witching, will the gains reverse as trading returns to normal?"

John Waggoner: Investors cash out of money funds in droves. Here is the money on the sidelines people have been talking about all year. But apparently most of this "sidelines money" is skeptical about the stock market, because its owners have been loading up on bond funds and paying down debt.

The Pragmatic Capitalist: Insiders remain skeptical of the rally. Last week company insiders sold $1.4B in stocks while insiders purchased only $83M.

Bloomberg: US Stocks and the dollar are moving together for the first time in a year, signaling the worst may be over for the greenback.

Cereal for dinner? Recession boosts General Mills' profits (GIS).

WSJ.com: Brazil is poised to overtake Mexico and Venezuela as Latin America's biggest oil producer by 2011.
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